Fewer cyclones predicted for upcoming 2019 - 2020 wet season

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Per cent chance of more tropical cyclones than average. Image: BOM.
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Bureau of Meteorology’s cyclone outlook for the 2019-2020 season shows Fewer than average numbers of tropical cyclones are expected.

The season, which typically runs from November to April, usually sees around 11 cyclones in Australian waters, with around four of these crossing the coast.

Australia has always seen at least one tropical cyclone cross the coast each season since reliable records began in the 1970s.

The Eastern region outlook, which covers the entirety of Australia’s eastern coast, shows a below-average season is most likely.

There is a 43 per cent chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 57 per cent chance of fewer.

About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall.

Higher than average pressure over northern Australia and a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have influenced this year's tropical cyclone outlook.

During ENSO-neutral cyclone seasons, the first cyclone to cross the coast is typically in late December.

Cyclone formation is rarely spread evenly throughout the season; often quiet periods are followed by bursts of activity.

Tropical cyclones that stay well out to sea can still cause damaging winds, large and dangerous waves, and storm surges along the coast.

Tropical lows that do not intensify into cyclones, or lows that are the remnants of older cyclones, can still cause widespread rainfall and dangerous flooding.

These impacts can extend beyond the tropics into southern areas of the country.

Read more about the outlook on the Bureau of Meteorology’s website


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