The chances of Australia being affected this year by the El Niño weather phenomenon have risen – but ironically Douglas and most of the rest of coastal far north Queensland probably won’t notice any change.

El Niño is an irregularly occurring and complex series of climatic changes affecting the equatorial Pacific region, characterised by the appearance of unusually warm, nutrient-poor water off northern Peru and Ecuador, typically in late December. The effects of El Niño include reversal of wind patterns across the Pacific, drought in Australasia, and unseasonal heavy rain in South America.

There is now approximately a 70 per cent chance of El Niño forming in 2023. This is roughly three times the normal chance of an El Niño.

“For June to August, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia, excluding south-west Tasmania, and coastal northern and eastern Tasmania,” the latest Bureau of Meteorology outlook predicts.

“Past accuracy of June to August long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall has generally been moderate to high for most of Australia increasing to high to very high for southeast Queensland and inland NSW and Victoria. Accuracy is low for some parts of the northern tropics, SA and WA,” it adds.

But in the far north including Douglas, the story is different, with the Wet Tropics expected to stay just that.

While most of the rest of Australia is expected to be drier this year, the Douglas region and areas around it in the far north are forecast to have a fairly high chance of above median rainfall.