The trend away from the major parties continued unabated this month. This week Greens leader Adam Bandt announced the Greens would target 10 safe Labor seats in the cities and push for an end to coal mining by the end of the decade.

Meanwhile, the “Voices Of” movement of independents has 30 independents standing in mainly safe Liberal seats in the cities on platforms mainly of stronger integrity and climate laws, more compassion for refugees and smarter economic policies. They are gaining more financial support by the day.

The nibbling away at major-party support is going to hit the Coalition harder than Labor because various right-wing minor parties are also challenging it, mainly in the bush, on a hotch-potch of Trumpian, male blue-collar, anti-vax, anti-climate action and pro-gun agendas.

This puts both major parties in a bind. The more they appease the right, the more they offend the left and vice-versa.

But the Liberal Party is in a bigger bind for several reasons. First, Labor does not have much to lose in the Bush. It has only five purely bush seats which to do not include a big chunk of a major city, whereas the Liberal Party has a lot to lose in the cities where it has seats that look a lot like Warringah (which Tony Abbott lost to an independent in 2019) and Wentworth (which fell briefly to an Independent in a by-election in 2018).

And they have seats in the bush like Indi in Victoria which has been held by a “Voices Of” independent since 2013.

Secondly, from a policy perspective, it does not matter much to Labor if it loses a few seats to the Greens. After all, many people in the Labor Party would prefer the Greens policy on a lot of things over their own compromised policies. 

Whereas, if the Liberal Party loses seats to Voices Of independents, it will be losing to people who stand for things that fly in the face of what have become present-day Liberal Party core values: secrecy; subsidies to fossil industries; no substantive action on climate; misallocation and rorting of public money through grants in marginal seats and giving uncompetitive tenders to mates and donors; and cruelty to refugees.

And then we had best mention the Senate where the Coalition is really up against it. After a double dissolution, such as 2016, the 72 senators from the states have to be divided into 36 short-term (three-year) and 36 long-term (six-year) senators. The Constitution says it is up to the Senate as to how to do that. There is a fair way provided by the Electoral Act, but it is not mandatory. Or an unfair way that favours the major parties.

Yes, they took the later and more major-party senators than warranted got the long terms. Guess what? Those who got the long six-year terms in 2016 come up for re-election at the next election. The Coalition finds itself defending three senate seats in every state except South Australia where it defends two. It is a big ask.

Expect the Coalition to lose a Senate seat or two to minor parties.

Overall, it points to a strong likelihood of a hung Parliament and a Government that will have to listen and not ignore other voices on things like climate, integrity, public health and education and treatment of women and so on.

But all this is just electoral mechanics. Prime Minister Scott Morrison (who unlike in 2019 is no longer an asset himself) has two other important defensive weapons that might overcome the mechanics: voter ignorance and apathy and a completely uninspiring Labor leader in Anthony Albanese.

That said, given Albanese it yet to inspire and Morrison does not deserve the trust and confidence of voters, a hung Parliament where they have to earn the confidence (literally) of others might be the best outcome for the nation.

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Crispin Hull is a current columnist and the former Editor of the Canberra Times.